2013光芒新秀排名－光芒迷的異想世界

wil myers

期待Wil Myers在今年衝擊大聯盟！

每年球季結束除了關注各球隊的交易和簽約之外，最值得關注的就是農場新秀的排名了，農場的深度絕對是讓球隊長期維持競爭力的關鍵之一，尤其對重建中的球隊或小市場球隊來說，農場更是舉足輕重，因為好的農場可以讓你即使在自由球員市場一無所獲也有源源不絕的新秀可以叫上大聯盟。

BA為Baseball America，ESPN為Keith Law， BP為Baseball Prospectus，RP為RaysProspects，FG為Fangraphs，MLB為Jonathan Mayo，JS為John Sickels，DC為DRaysBay Community Prospects，由於RP已經停止更新，所以2013年的排名以RP部分作者在DRB寫的DRaysBay writter`s Prospects取代，簡稱DW。我會把這些網站的新秀排名取平均值來決定總排名，但是只取前十名，因為不少網站只排出十個新秀，排太多的話資料量不足，而且前十名的新秀爭議比較小，接著我會比較2012年和2013年的排名，看看新秀的排名變化。

2012光芒新秀總排名

	Player	BA	ESPN	BP	FG	MLB	JS	RP	DC	AVG
1	Matt Moore	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	Hak-Ju Lee	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
3	Alex Torres	6	7	4	7	7	3	4	3	5.1
4	Taylor Guerrieri	4	6	3	3	6	5	6	10	5.3
5	Chris Archer	3	3	8	4	3	11	8	8	6
6	Mikie Mahtook	10	5	6	8	5	6	5	6	6.3
7	Enny Romero	8	4	7	5	9	12	3	4	6.5
8	Alex Colome	5	9	5	6	14	4	11	11	8.1
9	Tim Beckham	7	8	9	10	4	15	9	5	8.3
10	Drew Vettleson	9	10	10	9	8	10	7	9	9

2012光芒新秀排名整理

	BA	ESPN	BP	FG
1	Matt Moore	Matt Moore	Matt Moore	Matt Moore
2	Hak-Ju Lee	Hak-Ju Lee	Hak-Ju Lee	Hak-Ju Lee
3	Chris Archer	Chris Archer	Taylor Guerrieri	Taylor Guerrieri
4	Taylor Guerrieri	Enny Romero	Alex Torres	Chris Archer
5	Alex Colome	Mikie Mahtook	Alex Colome	Enny Romero
6	Alex Torres	Taylor Guerrieri	Mikie Mahtook	Alex Colome
7	Tim Beckham	Alex Torres	Enny Romero	Alex Torres
8	Enny Romero	Tim Beckham	Chris Archer	Mikie Mahtook
9	Drew Vettleson	Alex Colome	Tim Beckham	Drew Vettleson
10	Mikie Mahtook	Drew Vettleson	Drew Vettleson	Tim Beckham
11	X	X	Ryan Brett	Ryan Brett
12	X	X	Tyler Goeddel	Tyler Goeddel
13	X	X	Jake Hager	Josh Sale
14	X	X	Brandon Guyer	Brandon Guyer
15	X	X	Blake Snell	Derek Dietrich
16	X	X	Wilking Rodriguez	X
17	X	X	Derek Dietrich	X
18	X	X	Josh Sale	X
19	X	X	Brandon Martin	X
20	X	X	Luke Bailey	X
	MLB	JS	RP	DC
1	Matt Moore	Matt Moore	Matt Moore	Matt Moore
2	Hak-Ju Lee	Hak-Ju Lee	Hak-Ju Lee	Hak-Ju Lee
3	Chris Archer	Alex Torres	Enny Romero	Alex Torres
4	Tim Beckham	Alex Colome	Alex Torres	Enny Romero
5	Mikie Mahtook	Taylor Guerrieri	Mikie Mahtook	Tim Beckham
6	Taylor Guerrieri	Mikie Mahtook	Taylor Guerrieri	Mikie Mahtook
7	Alex Torres	Brandon Guyer	Drew Vettleson	Brandon Guyer
8	Drew Vettleson	Paker Markel	Chris Archer	Chris Archer
9	Enny Romero	Ryan Brett	Tim Beckham	Drew Vettleson
10	Blake Snell	Drew Vettleson	Brandon Guyer	Taylor Guerrieri
11	Paker Markel	Chris Archer	Alex Colome	Alex Colome
12	Josh Sale	Enny Romero	Tyler Goeddel	Derek Dietrich
13	Brandon Guyer	Tyler Goeddel	Paker Markel	Josh Sale
14	Alex Colome	Jake Hager	Ryan Brett	Ryan Brett
15	Ryan Brett	Tim Beckham	Josh Sale	Paker Markel
16	Jake Hager	Oscar Hernandez	Jake Hager	Jake Hager
17	Felipe Rivero	Granden Goetzman	Brandon Martin	Tyler Goeddel
18	Justin O'Conner	Tyler Botnick	Lenny Linsky	Jeff Malm
19	Jeff Ames	Felipe Rivero	Oscar Hernandez	Oscar Hernandez
20	Wilking Rodriguez	Derek Dietrich	Derek Dietrich	Tyler Botnick

接著是2013年的新秀排名，BA公布排名之後，光芒做了兩個影響農場的交易，先用Derek Dietrich跟馬林魚換來了Yunel Escobar，然後用James Shields和Wade Davis跟皇家交易來了Wil Myers、Jake Ordorizzi、Mike Montgomery和Petrick Leonard。BA在這篇文章裡有調整排名， Wil Myers排第一，Jake Ordorizzi排第五，Mike Montgomery排在十幾名，Petrick Leonard排在二十幾名，我也刪掉了Derek Dietrich， BA原來的排名我就不另外列出了。今年的前十名有點難排，其中Enny Romero和Blake Snell都有一個網站沒排到，平均時只好除以七了。

2013光芒新秀總排名

	Player	BA	ESPN	BP	FG	MLB	JS	DW	DC	AVG
1	Wil Myers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	Chris Archer	2	3	2	2	4	2	2	2	2.3
3	Taylor Guerrieri	3	2	3	4	2	3	3	3	2.8
4	Hak-Ju Lee	4	5	4	3	5	7	4	4	4.5
5	Jake Odorizzi	5	4	5	6	3	4	5	5	4.6
6	Richie Shaffer	7	7	6	7	9	5	6	6	6.6
7	Alex Colome	6	6	10	5	11	6	7	7	7.2
8	Enny Romero	8	9	X	8	6	8	8	9	8
9	Drew Vettleson	11	8	7	9	10	9	12	12	8.6
10	Blake Snell	9	X	8	11	7	11	11	8	9.2

2013光芒新秀排名整理

	BA	ESPN	BP	FG
1	Wil Myers	Wil Myers	Wil Myers	Wil Myers
2	Chris Archer	Taylor Guerrieri	Chris Archer	Chris Archer
3	Taylor Guerrieri	Chris Archer	Taylor Guerrieri	Hak-Ju Lee
4	Hak-Ju Lee	Jake Odorizzi	Hak-Ju Lee	Taylor Guerrieri
5	Jake Odorizzi	Hak-Ju Lee	Jake Odorizzi	Alex Colome
6	Alex Colome	Alex Colome	Richie Shaffer	Jake Odorizzi
7	Richie Shaffer	Richie Shaffer	Drew Vettleson	Richie Shaffer
8	Enny Romero	Drew Vettleson	Blake Snell	Enny Romero
9	Blake Snell	Enny Romero	Felipe Rivero	Drew Vettleson
10	Tim Beckham	Tim Beckham	Alex Colome	Felipe Rivero
11	Drew Vettleson	X	X	Blake Snell
12	X	X	X	Jake Hager
13	X	X	X	Jeff Ames
14	X	X	X	Mikie Mahtook
15	X	X	X	Tyler Goeddel
16	X	X	X	X
17	X	X	X	X
18	X	X	X	X
19	X	X	X	X
20	X	X	X	X
	MLB	JS	DW	DC
1	Wil Myers	Wil Myers	Wil Myers	Wil Myers
2	Taylor Guerrieri	Chris Archer	Chris Archer	Chris Archer
3	Jake Odorizzi	Taylor Guerrieri	Taylor Guerrieri	Taylor Guerrieri
4	Chris Archer	Jake Odorizzi	Hak-Ju Lee	Hak-Ju Lee
5	Hak-Ju Lee	Richie Shaffer	Jake Odorizzi	Jake Odorizzi
6	Enny Romero	Alex Colome	Richie Shaffer	Richie Shaffer
7	Blake Snell	Hak-Ju Lee	Alex Colome	Alex Colome
8	Mike Montgomery	Enny Romero	Enny Romero	Blake Snell
9	Richie Shaffer	Drew Vettleson	Jake Hager	Enny Romero
10	Drew Vettleson	Mikie Mahtook	Josh Sale	Jake Hager
11	Mikie Mahtook	Blake Snell	Blake Snell	Josh Sale
12	Alex Colome	Jeff Ames	Drew Vettleson	Drew Vettleson
13	Jeff Ames	Jake Hager	Mikie Mahtook	Mikie Mahtook
14	Tim Beckham	Tyler Goeddel	Tyler Goeddel	Tyler Goeddel
15	Jake Hager	Todd Glaesmann	Jesse Hahn	Mike Montgomery
16	Felipe Rivero	Felipe Rivero	Felipe Rivero	Tim Beckham
17	Tyler Goeddel	Parker Markel	Brandon Guyer	Jesse Hahn
18	Brandon Martin	Jesse Hahn	Todd Glaesmann	Todd Glaesmann
19	Josh Sale	Tim Beckham	Andrew Toles	Parker Markel
20	Patrick Leonard	Ryan Brett	Tim Beckham	Jeff Ames

總排名	2012	2013
1	Matt Moore	Wil Myers
2	Hak-Ju Lee	Chris Archer
3	Alex Torres	Taylor Guerrieri
4	Taylor Guerrieri	Hak-Ju Lee
5	Chris Archer	Jake Odorizzi
6	Mikie Mahtook	Richie Shaffer
7	Enny Romero	Alex Colome
8	Alex Colome	Enny Romero
9	Tim Beckham	Drew Vettleson
10	Drew Vettleson	Blake Snell

這兩年排名發生不少變化，Matt Moore已經升上大聯盟，Wil Myers、Jake Odorizzi和Richie Shaffer剛加入光芒農場，把Mikie Mahtook、Tim Beckham和Alex Torres擠出前十名，Blake Snell則補上了Matt Moore留下的空位，以下就追蹤一下新秀在各家排名的排名變化。

2012~2013光芒新秀排名變化

	Player	BA	ESPN	BP	FG	MLB	JS	DW	DC	AVG
1	Chris Archer	-2	---	+6	+2	-1	+9	+6	+6	+3.7
2	Taylor Guerrieri	+1	+4	---	-1	+4	+2	+3	+7	+2.5
3	Alex Colome	-1	+3	-5	+1	+2	-2	+4	+4	+1.4
4	Drew Vettleson	-2	+2	+3	---	-2	+1	-5	-3	-0.7
5	Enny Romero	---	-5	X	-3	+3	+4	-5	-5	-1.5
6	Hak-Ju Lee	-2	-3	-2	-1	-3	-5	-2	-2	-2.5
7	Tim Beckham	-3	-2	X	X	-5	-4	-11	-11	-6
8	Mikie Mahtook	X	X	X	-6	-7	-4	-8	-7	-6.4

由於Wil Myers、Jake Odorizzi和Richie Shaffer的加入讓他們的排名被往下擠，考慮這個因素之後大部分的新秀都沒有退步太多甚至有進步，但是Tim Beckham和Mikie Mahtook仍然退步了不少，實在令人擔憂。兩人的天份絕對無庸置疑，Tim Beckham是2008年的選秀狀元，Mikie Mahtook是在2011年第一輪第31順位選的新秀，期待他們能夠在這一年走出低潮。